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Improving the Robustness and Accuracy of Crime Prediction with the Self-Exciting Point Process Through Isotropic Triggering

Abstract:
The self-exciting point process (SEPP) is a model of the spread of crime in space and time, incorporating background and triggering processes. It shows promising predictive performance and forms the basis of a popular commercial software package, however few detailed case studies describing the application of the SEPP to crime data exist in the scientific literature. Using open crime data from the City of Chicago, USA, we apply the SEPP to crime prediction of assaults and burglaries in nine distinct geographical regions of the city. The results indicate that the algorithm is not robust to certain features of the data, generating unrealistic triggering functions in various cases. A simulation study is used to demonstrate that this outcome is associated with a reduction in predictive accuracy. Analysing the second-order spatial properties of the data demonstrates that the failures in the algorithm are correlated with anisotropy. A modified version of the SEPP model is developed in which triggering is non-directional. We show that this provides improved robustness, both in terms of the triggering structure and the predictive accuracy.
Author Listing: Gabriel Rosser;Tao Cheng
Volume: 12
Pages: 5-25
DOI: 10.1007/S12061-016-9198-Y
Language: English
Journal: Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy

Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy

APPL SPAT ANAL POLIC

影响因子:1.9
是否综述期刊:否
是否OA:否
是否预警:不在预警名单内
发行时间:-
ISSN:1874-463X
发刊频率:4 issues per year
收录数据库:Scopus收录
出版国家/地区:-
出版社:Springer Nature

期刊介绍

DescriptionThe journal has an applied focus: it actively promotes the importance of geographical research in real world settingsIt is policy-relevant: it seeks both a readership and contributions from practitioners as well as academicsThe substantive foundation is spatial analysis: the use of quantitative techniques to identify patterns and processes within geographic environmentsThe combination of these points, which are fully reflected in the naming of the journal, establishes a unique position in the marketplace.RationaleA geographical perspective has always been crucial to the understanding of the social and physical organisation of the world around us. The techniques of spatial analysis provide a powerful means for the assembly and interpretation of evidence, and thus to address critical questions about issues such as crime and deprivation, immigration and demographic restructuring, retailing activity and employment change, resource management and environmental improvement. Many of these issues are equally important to academic research as they are to policy makers and Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy aims to close the gap between these two perspectives by providing a forum for discussion of applied research in a range of different contexts Topical and interdisciplinaryIncreasingly government organisations, administrative agencies and private businesses are requiring research to support their ‘evidence-based’ strategies or policies. Geographical location is critical in much of this work which extends across a wide range of disciplines including demography, actuarial sciences, statistics, public sector planning, business planning, economics, epidemiology, sociology, social policy, health research, environmental management. FocusApplied Spatial Analysis and Policy will draw on applied research from diverse problem domains, such as transport, policing, education, health, environment and leisure, in different international contexts. The journal will therefore provide insights into the variations in phenomena that exist across space, it will provide evidence for comparative policy analysis between domains and between locations, and stimulate ideas about the translation of spatial analysis methods and techniques across varied policy contexts. It is essential to know how to measure, monitor and understand spatial distributions, many of which have implications for those with responsibility to plan and enhance the society and the environment in which we all exist. Readership and Editorial BoardAs a journal focused on applications of methods of spatial analysis, Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy will be of interest to scholars and students in a wide range of academic fields, to practitioners in government and administrative agencies and to consultants in private sector organisations. The Editorial Board reflects the international and multidisciplinary nature of the journal.

描述该期刊的应用重点:它积极促进地理研究在真实的世界环境中的重要性。它与政策有关:它既寻求读者群,也寻求从业者和学术界的贡献。其实质性基础是空间分析:使用定量技术来识别地理环境中的模式和过程。这些观点的结合,在期刊的命名中得到了充分的反映,在市场上确立了独特的地位。空间分析技术为收集和解释证据提供了强有力的手段,从而解决了诸如犯罪和贫困、移民和人口结构调整、零售活动和就业变化、资源管理和环境改善等关键问题。这些问题中的许多对学术研究和对政策制定者同样重要,应用空间分析和政策旨在通过提供一个论坛,在一系列不同的背景下讨论应用研究,缩小这两种观点之间差距。地理位置在许多工作中至关重要,这些工作涉及广泛的学科,包括人口学、精算学、统计学、公共部门规划、商业规划、经济学、流行病学、社会学、社会政策、卫生研究、环境管理。FocusApplied Spatial Analysis and Policy将从不同的问题领域,如交通、警务、教育、卫生、环境和休闲,在不同的国际背景下,借鉴应用研究。因此,该期刊将深入了解跨空间存在的各种现象,为不同领域和不同地点之间的比较政策分析提供证据,并激发关于在不同政策背景下转换空间分析方法和技术的想法。必须知道如何衡量、监测和了解空间分布,其中许多对那些有责任规划和改善我们所有人所生存的社会和环境的人有影响。读者群和编辑部作为一份专注于空间分析方法应用的期刊,《应用空间分析与政策》将吸引广泛学术领域的学者和学生、政府和行政机构的从业人员以及私营部门组织的顾问。编辑委员会反映了该杂志的国际性和多学科性质。

年发文量 44
国人发稿量 17
国人发文占比 39.66%
自引率 5.3%
平均录取率 -
平均审稿周期 -
版面费 US$2780
偏重研究方向 Multiple-
期刊官网 https://www.springer.com/12061/?utm_medium=display&utm_source=letpub&utm_content=text_link&utm_term=null&utm_campaign=HSSR_12061_AWA1_CN_CNPL_letpb_mp
投稿链接 https://www.editorialmanager.com/asap/

质量指标占比

研究类文章占比 OA被引用占比 撤稿占比 出版后修正文章占比
95.45% 28.24% 0.00% 3.13%

相关指数

影响因子
影响因子
年发文量
自引率
Cite Score

预警情况

时间 预警情况
2025年03月发布的2025版 不在预警名单中
2024年02月发布的2024版 不在预警名单中
2023年01月发布的2023版 不在预警名单中
2021年12月发布的2021版 不在预警名单中
2020年12月发布的2020版 不在预警名单中

JCR分区 WOS分区等级:Q2区

版本 按学科 分区
WOS期刊SCI分区
(2021-2022年最新版)
GEOGRAPHY Q2
ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Q3
REGIONAL & URBAN PLANNING Q3

中科院分区

版本 大类学科 小类学科 Top期刊 综述期刊
法学
4区
GEOGRAPHY
地理学
4区
ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES
环境研究
4区
REGIONAL & URBAN PLANNING
区域与城市规划
4区
2021年12月
升级版
法学
4区
GEOGRAPHY
地理学
4区
ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES
环境研究
4区
REGIONAL & URBAN PLANNING
区域与城市规划
4区
2020年12月
旧的升级版
法学
4区
GEOGRAPHY
地理学
4区
ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES
环境研究
4区
REGIONAL & URBAN PLANNING
区域与城市规划
4区
2022年12月
最新升级版
社会学
4区
GEOGRAPHY
地理学
4区
ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES
环境研究
4区
REGIONAL & URBAN PLANNING
区域与城市规划
4区