PUBLIC OPINION QUARTERLY 几区-刊鹿论文编译

The Polls—Trends Economic Evaluations and Political Change in Chile, 1966 to 2018

Abstract:

Over the past half century, Chile has fluctuated wildly in terms of economic prosperity and democratic health. Using 78 surveys archived at the Roper Center for Public Opinion Research, we document the evolution of Chileans’ perceptions of their personal, family, and national economic conditions during major political and economic changes. The data show that prior to the Pinochet dictatorship, despite a growing economic crisis, Chileans’ perceptions of their family’s economic situation—particularly among the lower socio-economic class—improved, suggesting that Allende’s social and economic policies may have had their intended effect. In contrast, through the democratic transition and the contemporary period, economic evaluations typically tracked objective economic conditions. We conclude by discussing how these patterns can inform public opinion research in Latin America and beyond. The public’s evaluations of the economy are thought to influence future economic conditions (e.g., Barsky and Sims 2012; Lahiri, Monokroussos, and Zhao 2016) as well as political factors, such as vote choice, presidential approval, congressional approval, trust in government, and regime stability (e.g., Holbrook 1994; Durr, Gilmour, and Wolbrecht 1997; Chanley, Rudolph, and Rahn 2000; Acemoglu and Robinson 2001; Erikson, MacKuen, and Stimson 2002; Morrison 2009; Enns and Richman 2013). Yet, beyond the United States Peter K. Enns is an associate professor in the Department of Government and executive director of the Roper Center for Public Opinion Research at Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, USA. Jose T. Sanchez Gomez is a doctoral candidate in the Department of Government at Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, USA. The authors thank Ryan Carlin, Gustavo Flores-Macias, Jana Morgan, Patricio Navia, Jenny Pribble, Ken Roberts, and Kathleen Weldon for helpful comments on previous versions of this article. Sanchez Gomez thanks the Andrew Kohut Fellowship at the Roper Center for Public Opinion Research at Cornell University and the Herbert I. Flournoy Fellowship from Cornell’s Government Department. *Address correspondence to Peter K. Enns, Cornell University, Department of Government, 205 White Hall, Ithaca, NY 14853-7901, USA; email: peterenns@cornell.edu. Public Opinion Quarterly doi:10.1093/poq/nfz029 D ow naded rom http/academ ic.p.com /poq/advance-articleoi/10.1093/poq/nfz029/5554702 by AAPO R M em er Acess user on 31 Agust 2019 and a handful of other countries with advanced economies, we know relatively little about the dynamics of economic perceptions and how they relate to economic and political conditions. To highlight the value of considering other contexts, we use data from the Roper Center for Public Opinion Research at Cornell University to examine more than a half century of Chilean economic attitudes. The data offer an unprecedented look at economic evaluations during economic booms and busts as well as democratic breakdown and revival. During the period of analysis, Chile transitioned from a democracy to a dictatorship (1973) and then back to a democracy (1990). The period also includes the 1972–1973 Chilean economic crisis, the late 1990s economic crisis in Latin America, the post-2008 global recession, and the contemporary period when Chile drastically reduced extreme poverty, more than tripled its economy, and joined the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. In addition to offering historical insight into economic perceptions in one of the most important economies of Latin America, Chile is an informative case because the extreme political and economic variation it experienced parallels the political and economic volatility of many other Latin American countries. Although scholars have analyzed a variety of historical public opinion data in Chile (Prothro and Chaparro 1974; Bermeo 2003; Madrid 2005; Carlin, Love, and Martinez-Gallardo 2015; Navia and Osorio 2015, 2017; Cabezas and Navia 2019), Chilean economic evaluations have received much less attention than economic attitudes in other Latin American countries (e.g., Kelly 2003; Carlin and Hunt 2015). We seek to build on this literature by offering a comprehensive overview of the Chilean public’s economic views. The patterns we highlight will also be of interest to public opinion scholars who focus on the United States and other advanced industrial democracies. The immense political and economic variation in countries like Chile allows an assessment of scope conditions of existing theories and opportunities to develop new theories about the causes and consequences of economic evaluations. For example, the relationship between economic conditions and vote choice in Latin America appears more complicated than in advanced democracies (Singer and Carlin 2013; Valdini and Lewis-Beck 2018). It is also possible that the political determinants of economic attitudes found in the United States (De Boef and Kellstedt 2004; Enns, Kellstedt, and McAvoy 2012) manifest differently in alternate institutional settings and in times of great political or economic change. The data we present could also speak to the generalizability of asymmetric responses to good and bad economic information (Soroka 2006, 2014) and whether economic opinion follows or leads economic news (Wlezien, Soroka, and Stecula 2017). This article first considers data prior to the Pinochet dictatorship (1966 to 1973), which includes the presidencies of Eduardo Frei Montalva (1964– 1970) and Salvador Allende (1970–1973). We then evaluate the transition to democracy, defined here as the final two years of Pinochet’s dictatorship Enns and Sanchez Gomez Page 2 of 13 D ow naded rom http/academ ic.p.com /poq/advance-articleoi/10.1093/poq/nfz029/5554702 by AAPO R M em er Acess user on 31 Agust 2019 (1988–1990), the first democratic election (December 1989), and the period up to the end of the first democratic administration (March 1994). Last, we examine the period of democratic consolidation: 1994 to 2018. The analysis presented herein highlights how these surveys can offer important insights into the impact of Allende’s social and economic policies, how economic perceptions shift before and after major political transitions, and the relationship between economic conditions and perceptions across diverse political and economic climates. Political Shifts and Democratic Breakdown (1966–1973) This section examines economic evaluations from 12 surveys from 1966 to 1973 (CEDOP/Hamuy Polls, Roper Center for Public Opinion Research), a period that precedes the dictatorship of Augusto Pinochet. These years include the presidencies of Eduardo Frei Montalva (1964–1970), from the Christian Democratic Party (center), and Salvador Allende (1970–1973), from the Popular Unity coalition (left).1 The surveys were conducted in the capital, Santiago, which included about 30 percent of the total population at the time.2 Although not shown here, the Roper Center also holds surveys conducted in the second (Valparaiso) and fourth (Viña del Mar) largest Chilean cities during this period. The data patterns in these cities largely parallel the results for Santiago. Figure 1 reports Santiago residents’ evaluations of their families’ retrospective economic situation compared to the previous year. This question, which was the only economic question during the period, asked: “Considering the last 12 months, would you say that your family has improved its economic situation, stayed the same, or worsened?” In figures 1–3, when more than one survey was conducted in a single year, we present the average of the surveys. The online appendix includes tables with all survey marginals.3 The years during Allende’s presidency (November 1970 to September 1973) are especially noteworthy. During this period, the increasingly positive views of family economic conditions moved opposite to deteriorating economic conditions. Economic growth, inflation, and the annual increase in real wages were all much better in 1970 than in 1972 and 1973. Specifically, in 1970, 1971, 1972, and 1973, the economic growth rates were 3.6, 8.0, –0.1, and –4.3; the annual inflation rates were 36.1, 22.1, 260.5, and 605.1; and the annual increases of real wages were 8.5, 22.3, –11.3, and –38.6 (Larrain and and a handful of other countries with advanced economies, we know relatively little about the dynamics of economic perceptions and how they relate to economic and political conditions. To highlight the value of considering other contexts, we use data from the Roper Center for Public Opinion Research at Cornell University to examine more than a half century of Chilean economic attitudes. The data offer an unprecedented look at economic evaluations during economic booms and busts as well as democratic breakdown and revival. During the period of analysis, Chile transitioned from a democracy to a dictatorship (1973) and then back to a democracy (1990). The period also includes the 1972–1973 Chilean economic crisis, the late 1990s economic crisis in Latin America, the post-2008 global recession, and the contemporary period when Chile drastically reduced extreme poverty, more than tripled its economy, and joined the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. In addition to offering historical insight into economic perceptions in one of the most important economies of Latin America, Chile is an informative case because the extreme political and economic variation it experienced parallels the political and economic volatility of many other Latin American countries. Although scholars have analyzed a variety of historical public opinion data in Chile (Prothro and Chaparro 1974; Bermeo 2003; Madrid 2005; Carlin, Love, and Martinez-Gallardo 2015; Navia and Osorio 2015, 2017; Cabezas and Navia 2019), Chilean economic evaluations have received much less attention than economic attitudes in other Latin American countries (e.g., Kelly 2003; Carlin and Hunt 2015). We seek to

Author Listing： Peter K. Enns;Jose T Sanchez Gomez

Volume： 83

Pages： 627-639

DOI： 10.1093/poq/nfz029

Language： English

Journal： Public Opinion Quarterly

PUBLIC OPINION QUARTERLY

PUBLIC OPIN QUART

影响因子：2.7

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ISSN：0033-362X

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出版社：Oxford University Press

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年发文量	49
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自引率	10.3%
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96.49%	19.75%	0.00%	0.00%

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